What if India lose to England today?
A quick answer is that India would still have a chance of entering the Super Six if they manage to defeat Pakistan on March 1.
Let's look at the some of the likely permutations and a combination in Group A.
Group A appears to be more 'robust' with fewer twists and turns.
There are four 'big' matches to go in Group A: India (I) vs England (E), I vs Pakistan (P), E vs Australia (A) and P vs Zimbabwe (Z).
In what follows, we will base our discussion only on I vs E and I vs P.
There are four possible outcomes in matches involving India:
Let's consider each of scenarios A, B, C and D. We will assume that A defeat E and that P defeat Z. We also assume that rain will not be a spoiler and that Holland and Namibia cause no upsets.
Scenario A (I defeat both E and P)
Likely points tally: A: 24, I: 20, E: 12, P: 12, Z: 12
Then A and I sail through to the Super Six and it is a tie between E, Z and P. Now P have defeated Z who have 'defeated' E, who have defeated P. So the team having the highest net run rate (NRR) will go through. Currently E have, by far, the best NRR. So they would be favourites to go through.
Australia will advance to the Super Six with a clean sweep of 8+4 = 12 points (4+4 = 8 by virtue of wins against India and the third qualifier; 1+1+1+1 = 4 by virtue of wins in the Group against the non-qualifiers). India will advance with 4+3 points (4 points from the win against the third qualifier and 3 points from the other three wins).
Summary: A (12), I (7) and one among E, P or Z -- probably E -- go through (with 3 points). Best possible scenario for India.
Scenario B (I lose to both E and P)
Likely points tally: A: 24, P: 16, E: 16, I: 12, Z: 12
This is the horror scenario for India. A, P and E will advance to the Super Six. A will carry 8+4 = 12 points, E will carry 4+3 = 7 points (4 points because they defeated P, 3 points for wins against I, Namibia and Holland) while Pakistan will go through with 0+4 = 4 points (P have lost to both A and E, but defeated I, Z, N and H in this scenario).
Summary: A (12), E (7) and P (4) in the Super Six
Scenario C (I defeat E but lose to P)
Likely points tally: A: 24, P: 16, I: 16, E: 12, Z: 12
Here too the qualifiers for the Super Six are easily determined. Once again A advance in great style with 12 points, P go up with 4+3 = 7 points (4 points by defeating India and 3 points from the other three wins). I advance, but with only 4 points (because they defeat E, Z, N and H).
Summary: A (12), P (7) and I (4) in the Super Six Best scenario for Pakistan.
Scenario D (I lose to E but defeat P)
Likely points tally: A: 24, E: 16, I: 16, P: 12, Z: 12
This is essentially a repeat of the earlier scenario with E replacing P. So A again advance with 12 points, E go up with 4+3 = 7 points (4 points by defeating India and 3 points from the other three wins). I advance, but with only 4 points (because they defeat P, Z, N and H).
Summary: A (12), E (7) and I (4) in the Super Six
So India can theoretically qualify even after losing to England. But then their game against Pakistan at Centurion becomes a 'fight to death' -- something that they would like to avoid. For England, today is a do-or-die match (although they can still make it after losing to India if they defeat Australia!). For Pakistan, the tough days continue; they must first overcome the tricky Zimbabwe hurdle before they can dream of making it to the Super Six.
Finally we must mention that all these scenarios depend purely on arithmetic, and the 'ground reality' can be quite different. For example, one reaction that we got from South Africa is that it is very unlikely that SA could lose to SL on March 3. That is a day-night game on the fast Durban pitch and the South Africans know how to win such games. Indeed, India too could be in serious trouble if they are required to bat under the lights.
