Commentary/Vir Sanghvi

1997: A year of political upheavals, midnight dramas, sudden resignations and declarations of withdrawal of support

That leaves the cow-belt chieftains, all of whom have their own problems. Perhaps Mulayam can be won over if Kanshi Ram is kept out or vice versa. It maybe that Kesri's old equation with Laloo Yadav will lead to an alliance with the Bihar unit of the JD.

But, look at it in perspective. If you have a government headed by Sitaram Kesri, peopled by the supporters of Mulayam Singh Yadav, Laloo Yadav, Kanshi Ram, etc., then what you have -- in effect -- is a United Front government by another name. It will bear no resemblance to a Congress government headed by Rajiv Gandhi or even by Narasimha Rao.

And yet, this is the principal prospect of political change in 1997. There will be political upheavals, midnight dramas, sudden resignations, declarations of withdrawal of support and yet, at the end of the day, all we will get is the same cast of characters in slightly different costumes.

You'd have to be very naive to believe that once such a government is installed, things will be much better in 1997 than they were in 1996.

The finance minister has repeatedly emphasised that the economy is not a bad way. His civil servants have asserted that there is no recession. Perhaps they are right.

But can anyone disagree with Dr Manmohan Singh when he says, 'There is no doubt that people lack confidence in the economy at present'? Or when he adds, 'The general view abroad is that India has given up on the reforms... and you know, the world will not wait for us'?

Manmohan says the crisis of confidence is not Chidambaram's fault. It is the consequence of political uncertainty; of the compulsions of a coalition; and of the failure of the political leadership to take tough decisions.

This is unlikely to change as long as the United Front is in office. It now seems as though H D Deve Gowda has followed Rajesh Pilot's lead and decided to do some suicide bombing of his own. His message to his coalition partners is: Don't let the Congress take over; if we go we'll take this Lok Sabha with us. In other words, prepare for a general election.

The last thing India needs is another election. We do not need the false promises that Deve Gowda will make in the run-up to the polls or the reckless spending that his government will indulge in as it attempts to win over the voters. Moreover, there is no guarantee that another election will throw up a stable government. As it has demonstrated in UP, the Indian electorate can be remarkably stubborn and unwavering.

So what would work? I have no idea. By my guess is that a Congress government headed by Manmohan Singh would at least restore confidence in the economy and prove that the anti-corruption shenanigans of the last 12 months have not been in vain.

Perhaps Manmohan lacks the political savvy required to manage a minority government. But it is better to have an honourable failure headed by an honest man than a government of geriatric has-beens, turncoats and cynical regional chieftains with no commitment to India's future. And far better to make a go of this Lok Sabha than to go in for another election.

Alas, that does not seem about to happen. And 1997 does not hold out the prospect of any great improvement on 1996.