Warning that another rigged election will add 'even more salt to Pakistan's open wounds,' a prominent United States expert has said that political trends in the country were likely to grow worse the longer President Pervez Musharraf remained in any position of leadership.
'The longer Musharraf wears either of his two hats, the longer it will take for Pakistan to hold sufficiently credible elections upon which a semblance of political normalcy can resume,' Michael Krepon, co-founder of The Stimson Center, says.
In the article titled, Pakistan With or Without Musharraf, he says the longer Musharraf stays, the greater the difficulties Washington can expect on all three fronts -- counter-terrorism, control of the country's nuclear assets, and in handling bilateral ties.
Krepon also argues that corporate interests of the Pakistan Army, with respect to the above three fronts, 'are unlikely to change appreciably if or when Musharraf goes.'
Pakistan's domestic politics have become so abnormal that modest remedies now seem insufficient while near-term solutions, including the goal of free and fair national elections in January, appear improbable, he says.
He argues that Washington's insistence on prompt elections is predicated on the 'false but long-standing assumption' that Musharraf remains the key to holding the country together in the face of centrifugal tendencies.
Krepon says a new transition strategy is needed, which centers on a 'truly impartial' caretaker government to prepare for national elections that take place in a timeframe whereby political leaders in exile can return home, a level playing field is provided and an independent judiciary and election commission can be reconstituted to monitor the results.
Stressing that being army chief is an important, full-time job, he says: 'Pakistan has not had a full-time chief for the past eight years. The sooner Musharraf hands this baton to Vice Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Kiyani, the better.'
'With or without Musharraf, the corporate interests of the Pakistan Army remain the same: The nation's well-being now depends on countering internal threats that are carving out autonomous zones in the tribal belt along the Afghan border. Islamic extremism has devolved from a device used to kick the Soviet Union out of Afghanistan and to inflict pain on India to a clear threat to Pakistan's future.'
The leading expert on South Asia warned that the US' ties with Pakistan will approach a point of no return is the Bush administration equates the Islamic country's future with Musharraf's hold on power.'What would be worse for Pakistan and the United States: If Musharraf stays or if he goes? With great hesitation, I have come to the following conclusions. The political trends lines within Pakistan are likely to grow worse the longer Musharraf remains in any position of leadership.'
