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Government undecided on CTBT

Rajesh Ramachandran in New Delhi

The government is yet to decide whether or not it wants to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

For now, the rider contained in the statement of Brajesh Mishra, principal secretary to the prime minister, to the effect that the government will try to work out a solution within the framework of that treaty, is all we have to go on with by way of official comment.

Adding to the confusion is Pramod Mahajan, the prime minister's political advisor. In macho mode, Mahajan said today, "95 per cent of the country's economy is our own. The CTBT will not be signed to escape economic sanctions from the Western world."

Mahajan, however, said that Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee has written letters to the heads of various states -- including the US and Japan -- explaining India's stand and added that US President Bill Clinton's proposed visit to India is still on.

It is becoming increasingly difficult to figure just where the government is coming from, here. Thus, while Mahajan told Rediff On The NeT that India has not taken a decision on signing the CTBT, BJP spokesman Kishen Lal Sharma said the government would not sign the treaty.

For his part, Vajpayee visited the defence ministry and held meetings with Defence Minister George Fernandes, the three chiefs of staff, Home Minister Lal Kishinchand Advani, Finance Minister Yashwant Sinha and senior bureaucrats.

International reaction to the nuclear test, and its possible impact on the Indian economy, was discussed in depth at the meeting. The prime minister followed up with a full Cabinet meeting later this evening.

Analysts indicate that the government does not want the euphoric edge of the nuclear test -- endorsed even by the Opposition -- to be lost in the face of threats of sanctions. Hence, goes perceived wisdom, the reluctance of the Vajpayee government to talk of signing the CTBT just yet.

The thinking among political leaders and defence experts, though, is that India can now afford to sign the treaty -- provided the analysis of results of the Pokaran tests of May 11 indicates that it has achieved what it set out to, technologically.

Former prime minister Inder Kumar Gujral is one among many advocates of India now signing the treaty. "I feel we will sign the CTBT," Gujral told Rediff On the NeT. "Now the situation is different. I have always been saying that the CTBT is neither comprehensive, nor does it ban all tests. On the eve of signing the treaty, China and France conducted tests. Their aim was to collect data and to test sophisticated weapons before signing the treaty. America too has always been doing it -- and they now have the sort of technology that allows them to conduct simulated tests," he argues.

The former prime minister's contention is that if the CTBT has to be comprehensive, it has to bring all tests -- including simulated ones -- within its jurisdiction.

Gujral feels there is not much reason for the sharp international reactions, since India has not yet manufactured nuclear weapons.

Mahajan, for his part, believes it was the threat perception from the neighbouring country that forced India to decide on the testing. "This has been explained by the prime minister in his letters to various heads of state," he clarified.

Former information and broadcasting minister and Janata Dal spokesman S Jaipal Reddy also believes India can now sign the CTBT, provided it has achieved its objectives through the recent test. "If the country has the technology to even conduct simulated tests, and feels strong enough, then it can sign the treaty," Reddy said, echoing the prevailing mindset.

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