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India will miss out on demographic bonus: UN report

Due to poor governance, India will miss out on the ''demographic bonus'' which greatly helped the Asian tigers, some of the south Asian countries, according to a United Nations report released in New Delhi today.

According to the United Nations Population Fund Report ''State of the World's Population -- 1998'', all of south Asia is poised to experience the demographic bonus over the next two decades.

But to take advantage of the bonus from a bulge in the workforce, India and other South Asian countries need to invest in their human population, especially in education and health in the manner those countries in East Asia and South-East Asia did 30 years ago.

''India has not taken these steps and lots of people who could have done much better are going to be denied because of inadequate planning,'' said the UNFPA India representative Dr Wasim Zaman.

Not only South Asia but several less developed countries in the world will experience a temporary bulge in their working populations as compared to the older and younger generations which are dependant rather than productive.

''This demographic bonus offers countries an opportunity to build human capital and spur long-term development -- if they invest in education, jobs and health services including reproductive healthcare,'' the UNFPA report said.

According to Dr Zaman, between 15 and 40 per cent of the growth of per capita income in East Asia can be attributed to changes in demographic age structures over the last few decades.

In fact, much of the difference in prosperity between east Asia and south Asia is due to the differences in the pace of demographic change, according to the UNFPA.

''This demographic bonus offers countries an opportunity to build human capital and spur long-term development -- if they invest in education, jobs and health services including reproductive health care,'' the report said.

The UNFPA calculates that 15 to 40 per cent of the growth of per capita income in east Asia can be attributed to changes in demographic age structures over the last few decades.

The effect of the workforce bulge is not unique to East Asia. Culture and value systems are important and the nature and quality of development are influenced by them but the strongest factors are common to all regions.

Much of the difference between East Asia and South Asia is due to the differences in the pace of demographic change, according to the UNFPA.

Recent developments in the Asian markets also demonstrate the crucial importance of good governance and conducive economic policy and institutional frameworks, the report said.

Failure to ensure appropriate economic conditions could squander opportunities created by the demographic bonus.

The UNFPA described the enabling conditions as policies for job creation and competitive market systems.

It warned that failure to create new jobs needed for growing populations and to reduce existing unemployment, could lead to social unrest and instability.

The recovery of the Asian tiger economies from turbulence and uncertainty will be helped by their investments in education and health.

Lower mortality and fertility rate will reduce the need for future investment while a more educated workforce will help the economies to revive.

''If the needed policy changes and increased efficiencies in national and regional markets can be made, the demographic bonus need not be squandered,'' the UNFPA report said.

UNI