Sharief's future hinges on successful Indo-Pak talks

The outlook of a section of Pakistan intelligentsia indicates that Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharief's future depends on successful Indo-Pak talks.

Many in Islamabad had felt that nothing worthwhile would emerge from the talks with New Delhi. And once they found that something worthwhile was happening, they, together with a section of the armed forces (who feared their predominant role in national politics would be undermined), have been doing everything possible to stall the talks, according to a senior external affairs ministry official.

With the completion of the first round of talks in March this year, the armed forces in Pakistan as well as the India-baiters had realised that both countries were hell-bent on moving forward in bilateral relations.

"Consequently, on the eve of the second round of talks in June this year, the Pakistan media came up with extraordinary irritants to vititate the atmosphere," the officials said.

Following this, the Pakistan air force had issued a statement that an Indian MIG-25 had violated its air space at an altitude of over 50,000 feet.

Simultaneously, the print media became hysterical about a Washington Post report on India's deployment of its short-range < A HREF="../jun/13prith.htm">Prithvi missiles in the Punjab sector. Sensing this hysteria could vitiate the atmosphere, Indian Prime Minister I K < A HREF="../jun/11prith.htm">Gujral issued a statement about the actual stationing of the Prithvi missiles in Jalandhar.

Pakistan's response, through its Foreign Minister Gohar Ayub Khan, was that "Mr Gujral may not be knowing all these happenings''.

To worsen the situation further, the Pakistan press voiced concern over the death of an officer in the exchange of fire with India along the Line of Control.

Despite these irritants, the Indian and Pakistani foreign secretaries had met in Islamabad and made a good headway in the talks. This, according to the officials, had surprised the majority of the Pakistani intelligentsia including, former Pakistan ambassador to the US, Naleeha Lodhi and former foreign secretary Abdus Sattar.

Thus, a section of the Islamabad elite and armed forces have been plotting to stall the talks, or at least ensure its failure. The intense exchange of fire all along the Indo-Pak border in August and early September was part of this plan.

Now, on the eve of the current talks, the Pakistan foreign ministry has leaked to the media the news about India expelling two of its employees from New Delhi.

In reality, MEA officials said, India sent a formal notice about the matter three months ago. But Pakistan had not responded. Finally, when India insisted on expelling the officials in late August, Pakistan retaliated by expelling two Indian employees from the high commission in Islamabad early this month.

"All they wanted was to rake up an issue, any issue," the official said. "It was not incidental, but a deliberate ploy to vitiate the atmosphere."

In this backdrop, South block mandarins are in a dilemma about the future of the Sharief government. If the Pakistan armed forces decides to strike again, as they have done many times in the past, they would be confronted with a Catch-22 situation.

UNI adds: Gujral on Wednesday conveyed to Pakistan Foreign Secretary Shamshad Ahmed that India would continue the official-level dialogue.

The Pakistan delegation, led by Ahmed, called on Gujral and remained closeted with him for 25 minutes.

Asked whether Gujral had made any proposal to hasten the pace of talks, the Pakistan foreign secretary would only say, ''It is difficult to say anything at this stage."

Ahmed said Gujral had renewed his invitation to Sharief for a meeting in New York on September 23.

UNI