The CEIP said, the US-India nuclear deal, under which the US would provide civilian nuclear technology to India, overturning decades of US policy and making a turning point in the evolution of the US-India relationship, "has faltered close to fruition."
It said, "Even as a new counter-offensive has been launched to push through the deal during the lame duck session of the Senate in November, proponents of the deal are disappointed, and even slightly frustrated, that the Senate did not take up the bill in its recently concluded session."
"Adding to their discomfort, "the report added, "is North Korea's recent nuclear test," which is likely to place the US-India nuclear deal debate more firmly within the context of increasing proliferation in the world, instead of in the narrative about strengthening the bilateral relationship between the US and India."
The report, authored by Anirudh Suri, a junior fellow and protégé of George Perkovich -- the author of the highly acclaimed 'India's Nuclear Bomb,' who heads the CEIP's Nonproliferation Project and is strongly opposed to the deal -- noted that Pyongyang's test "has strengthened the voice of the critics," although "the Indian government has not given up hope."
It said New Delhi apparently is "developing a multi-pronged strategy to counter the growing opposition and unexpected obstacles for a deal that many consider is largely favorable to the Indians."
"Firstly, even as they have criticized the DPRK for the nuclear test, Indian officials have sought to prevent India from being clubbed with North Korea on nonproliferation matters," the report noted. "They see two key distinctions between the North Korean and Indian nuclear programs.
One, they have highlighted the role of clandestine proliferation and Pakistan's assistance in the North Korean test while emphasising India's own clean, transparent record on proliferation matters."
It also spoke of New Delhi emphasising that Pyongyang's nuclear test "cannot and should not be compared to the Indian tests in 1998," because India had never signed the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty nor violated any safeguards, where North Korea, having accepted 'safeguards in perpetuity' as a signatory of the NPT, 'has violated the safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency."
The CEIP report also acknowledged that "India can also argue that the DPRK test has in fact increased the strategic need for a nuclear India to be brought within the international nonproliferation framework," and recalled that "proponents of the deal have long argued that ensuring India is included as a partner in the nonproliferation efforts rather than being treated as a nuclear pariah would help build an effective nonproliferation regime based on ground realities."
However, it said, "Critics contend that India should not be rewarded so highly for doing what responsible nuclear powers should do anyway," and also that "if the deal went through, North Korea -- and possibly Iran, among others -- would expect that it might also be able to get rid of its pariah status if it could bear the initial brunt of sanctions in the aftermath of its nuclear tests."
The CEIP argued in it report that "it is these critics who need to be convinced -- not ignored -- and therefore it would be unwise for India to be relieved simply because the statements emanating from the Bush Administration that India and North Korea cannot be equated."
Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs Nicholas Burns -- the chief US negotiator of the US-India nuclear deal -- last week reiterated the Administration's contention that no way can North Korea be compared to India.
In an interaction with Indian correspondents, Burns said 'North Korea has now fully exited from the nonproliferation regime," and said Pyongyang's test did not in any way "changed our position at all," vis-à-vis Washington's commitment to the US-India nuclear deal.
Burns said, "When the Nuclear Suppliers Group looks at India, we will encourage the Nuclear Suppliers Group to look at a country with a good record versus countries with horrible records -- Iran and North Korea. And, the distinction to us is very clear."
"And, we stand by our belief that the international nonproliferation system is going to be strengthened if India is inside it and allowed to be inside it, as our agreement would allow it to do for the first time in 30 years since the '70s,"he added.
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