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Colonel Anil Athale (retd)

As long as there is a significant Muslim population in India, Pakistan will feel insecure

The Ramzan cease-fire is more than a week old and appears to be holding. Pakistan has responded by saying it will observe maximum restraint along the Line of Control in Kashmir. The leaders of the Hurriyat Conference exude optimism and are talking of a 'solution' to the vexed Kashmir problem. All this has generated euphoria in the country and there is a feeling that the subcontinent may be on the verge of a new era of peace. This article is an attempt to inject caution and point out that it is yet too early to begin celebrating.

Prime Minister Vajpayee's declaration of a unilateral cease-fire in Kashmir was criticised by some as yet another attempt at appeasement. These critics have never understood the finer nuances in India's Kashmir strategy. The cease-fire offer is essentially aimed at the Indian citizens of Kashmir, who by all accounts today yearn for peace.

On the other hand the Jehadis, primarily from Pakistan, have been opposed to any compromise or even a temporary lull in violence. The Indian cease-fire offer has driven an effective wedge between the Jehadists and average Kashmiri citizen.

It is true that support for the cause of Azaadi or even a merger with Pakistan (a minority view in Kashmir) remains intact. What seems to have changed is support to the use of violent means to achieve that end. With this, the situation in Kashmir could change drastically. Mao Zedong, had prophetically warned that guerrillas or insurgents without popular support are like fish out of water. The withdrawal of public support to violence can sound the death knell for the Jehadis's campaign of terror.

The positive reaction by Pakistan is possibly due to its need to avoid international isolation. With the International Monetary Fund breathing down its neck and a desperate need for loan, Pakistan has no choice but to bow to international pressure.

Yet all this may come to a naught as the fundamentalist lobby in Pak is strong as ever. The madarsas continue to churn out semi-literate fanatics for induction into India to fight the holy war. It is nothing short of export of Pakistan's socio-economic problems into India under the garb of Jehad. The Pakistani armed forces have been heavily infiltrated by the fundamentalists and this explains General Musharraf's inability or unwillingness to take any action against the rabid elements in Pakistan. As long as this fundamental problem exists, peace of any kind will always remain illusive.

A rogue army led by an indisciplined general

Some weeks ago, the respected British weekly The Economist, (October 14-20, 2000) wrote an article titled 'Pakistan's Useless Dictator!' -- the count down for Musharraf seems to have begun. It is often seen that the British media acts as the American 'Pointsman' on South Asia. The article quotes a former Pakistani army chief as saying that for the first time in its history, the ISI has taken over the army headquarters and is running the government and the country. That Pakistan is a nuclear power, completes the picture.

The Economist may have woken up to the facts now but serious analysts were concerned for quite some time. The Hamidur Rehman report on the 1971 war has itself admitted that the Pak army carried out atrocities and killed close to 300,000 Bengalis. In sheer numbers that is second to only Hitler or the Rwandan mobs.

The first pictures released last October of the Pak dictator graphically showed his waywardness. Here was a general in full uniform, with a cigarette dangling from his mouth, cockily handling a weapon, that too in the presence of his prime minister! Ask any self-respecting soldier whether he will ever do that? That picture in essence summed up Musharraf.

In any case, a soldier who conveniently forgets his oath of loyalty to the constitution and the government, cannot be expected to inspire much confidence.

Ever since Zia's 'Islamisation' drive of 1979, increasingly, a large part of the Pakistani army has been infiltrated by extremist elements. The number of bearded soldiers and officers (following the strict Islamic traditions) is growing. Thus unlike the time of Ayub Khan, when army rule meant victory of the 'modernists,' today the situation is qualitatively different. Army rule in Pakistan today has come to be proxy rule by the Jamaat-e-Islami, a party that could never win elections.

The basic problem

Even more fundamentally the basic issue between India and Pakistan remains, and it is Pakistan's refusal to accept that India is a secular state. It is not just the Jehadists, but the educated and moderate segment of Pakistani society that hold this view. Unfortunately, intemperate utterances by the extreme right in India give a handle to Pakistan to question India's secular credentials. Thus as long as there is a significant Muslim population in India, Pakistan will continue to feel insecure as that knocks out the bottom from the 'two nation' theory that is the very basis of Pakistan.

Social changes are a slow process. The growth of education and prosperity with a degree of equity in Pakistan, will, in course of time reduce the influence of Jehadis and fundamentalist institutions. Today, the poor in Pakistan see their salvation only through fundamentalist Islam.

Lubricated with Arab money, the defeat of fundamentalism in Pakistan is not easy in the short term. Till such time that the sane and moderate elements in Pakistan do not assert themselves, peace in Kashmir and the subcontinent will always remain fragile. Our people will be well advised not to succumb to euphoria and later go into the depths of national depression once the violence resumes in Kashmir. It is not a pretty picture but caution is called for so that the nation does not blunder into another Kargil!

Colonel Anil Athale (retd) is Co-ordinator, Initiative for Peace and Disarmament.

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