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The Rediff Special/ Colonel (retd) Dr Anil Athale

Terror at Midnight

Colonel (retd) Dr Anil A Athale on the threat of use of weapons of mass destruction by extra national groups.

During the Cold War the entire attention of the strategic community was focused on preventing the least likely possibility, an all out nuclear war. The importance of insurgencies and the bush fire wars that were fought more frequently was realised when it was too late. Similarly, all attention is today focused on the spread of WMDs (weapons of mass destruction) to more nations.

The real danger of terrorist groups getting hold of these and making use of them has received scant attention. A nation state at least can be deterred by a counter threat. But a terrorist group with no fixed territorial base is immune to deterrence. Even against revolutionary or rogue states, the current control regimes have no real answer unless the rogue states target one of the nuclear weapon power itself.

Population growth, industrialisation and imminent exhaustion of oil are has increased the need for nuclear energy and consequent spread of fissile material. The ongoing information revolution has spread the knowledge of making chemical and biological weapons to many more countries. There is also a possibility of a technological breakthrough making available even more horrendous weapons.

Since 1945 there have been 43 instances of nuclear threats. Out of these 22 or half, were against non-nuclear powers. After signing the NPT there have been 9 nuclear threats, eight of which were administered to non nuclear weapons states. All the major powers, though signatory to the ban on chemical and biological weapons, continue their research in these areas. This duplicity robs the international control regimes of all legitimacy.

Attention of the defence establishments as well as strategic analysts has been long focused on the countering the threat of nuclear chemical and biological weapons by adversary nations. Nations with fixed territory and populations can be deterred by threat of retaliation. As a nation state continues to be the unit of action in the international arena, even the so-called crazy states are unlikely to want to commit mass suicide.

In the world on the eve of the 21st century , there are only three states that base their nationhood on universal principles and are truly plural. These are India, Indonesia and the United States of America. Even the other emerging and ex-super powers like China or Russia are essentially 'Nation states'. They neither have universal appeal nor universal goals. Neither do India or Indonesia have global ambition, reach or presence. The US has an unsatiated hunger for the resources of world. But her goals being mainly economic, mindless destruction is out of sync with her psyche.

The concept of pan Islam is universalist without a state. Islam does not accept pluralism. Its memories of having dominated the world is also a powerful impetus for expansion. Being an absolutist ideology, pure destruction is part of the Islamic psyche. In near future, Islamic fundamentalist groups with or without the patronage of some Islamic states, are the most likely users of nuclear, chemical and biological weapons for mass destruction.

Extra national groups do not need elaborate and easy to detect means of delivery. Since they aim at random targets, defensive measures have their limitations. As the world gets increasingly urbanised, many more 'soft' targets become easily available.

The factors of legitimacy given to WMDs by the big five, ease of delivery, plentiful soft targets and spread and ease of manufacture of chemical and biological weapons, all go to make use of WMDs by terrorist groups a real possibility by the turn of the century. Mass gatherings to celebrate the passing of a century on December 31, 1999 would provide ideal targets for such groups.

One can, at the fear of being called alarmist, identify the likely locations. Trafalgar Square in London, Times Square and the Washington war memorial lawns in the US are some lucrative targets. In India the targets could be India Gate in Delhi, Chowringhee in Calcutta and the Gateway of India in Bombay. The three countries likely to be targeted are the US, Russia, UK and India. The first three are widely perceived as the 'Satanic States' and India because it is seen as a soft and easy target given the sloth and inefficiency of its security apparatus.

The Rediff Specials

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