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The Rediff Special/Sameer Jalnapurkar

Kosovo now, it can be Kashmir next

Gaurav Kampani in 'India's Kosovo Conundrum' argues that India should be supporting NATO on Kosovo. But there are several problems with Kampani's stand on Kosovo.

Firstly, given the appalling human rights record of the US in Central America, Congo, Chile, Vietnam, Turkey, Indonesia, etc it is rather far-fetched to claim that the US was motivated by humanitarian considerations.

The main aim was to set a precedent for what NATO regards as its "new strategic concept", in which the organisation wields the stick which keeps rogue states in line and makes the world safe for Western multinationals. The goal is to make irrelevant the UN and the system of international law (except when they find it convenient for their purposes) and to sideline Russia.

Further, the Rambouillet "agreement" was a complete sham, and it did not offer any realistic option to the Serbs. Offers by the Serbs to give autonomy to Kosovo were ignored.

It is also ridiculous to suggest that Russia has nothing positive to offer. Indeed, no solution will be possible without the Russian approval.

There is a clear danger to India if NATO banditry is allowed to prevail. Since the US wants to be able to bully the world without the fear of retaliation, a top priority is to limit nuclear proliferation. And India is close to the top of the non-proliferation agenda. One can easily imagine a scenario in which Pakistan creates chaos in Kashmir, with tacit US approval. The Pakistanis scream that a nuclear war is imminent. Then the US intervenes with the ostensibly moral aim of preventing war, and uses the opportunity to destroy Indian nuclear capability.

The following excerpt, from Noam Chomsky's essay Rogue States, should open the eyes of those who have any illusions about US policy: A secret 1995 study of the Strategic Command, which is responsible for the strategic nuclear arsenal, outlines the basic thinking. Released through the Freedom of Information Act, the study, Essentials of Post-Cold War Deterrence, shows how the United States shifted its deterrent strategy from the defunct Soviet Union to so-called rogue states such as Iraq, Libya, Cuba and North Korea."

The study advocates that the US exploit its nuclear arsenal to portray itself as "irrational and vindictive if its vital interests are attacked." That "should be a part of the national persona we project to all adversaries," particularly the "rogue states." "It hurts to portray ourselves as too fully rational and cool-headed," let alone committed to such silliness as international law and treaty obligations. "The fact that some elements" of the US government "may appear to be potentially 'out of control' can be beneficial to creating and reinforcing fears and doubts within the minds of an adversary's decision makers."

The report resurrects Nixon's "madman theory": Our enemies should recognise that we are crazed and unpredictable, with extraordinary destructive force at our command, so they will bend to our will in fear."

Conclusion: India needs to develop ICBM capability as rapidly as possible.

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