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Karnataka JD skating on thin ice

Savera R Someshwar in Bangalore

"As a person, J H Patel is jovial; as a politician, he is a tragedy," says Bharatiya Janata Party leader and candidate from Banglaore South Ananth Kumar, summing up the soup in which the Karnataka chief minister finds himself today.

Eight legislators from the Janata Dal have openly declared their allegiance to Ramakrishna Hegde's broad front, the Rashtriya Nava Nirmana Vedike. Four of them were ministers, each with considerable clout.

The chief minister claims not to be bothered about the desertions. "My spine is strong enough to bear this tragedy," he told reporters in Bijapur. "Though dry leaves will fall, the tree will remain intact," he added.

The Karnataka Vidhan Soudha has 225 seats. At present, the Janata Dal has 112 (including the eight who joined Hegde) and the support of 15 others; the Congress has 41; and the BJP, 39.

Despite Patel's brave words, the tension among Janata Dal leaders is apparent. And though they insist that the chief minister continues to draw huge crowds, their responses on the JD government's future are hesitant.

"No more MLAs will quit the party," Deputy Chief Minister P G Siddaramaiah told Rediff On The NeT. "All the MLAs who were Hegde's supporters have gone."

A view pooh-poohed by the Congress. "I know for a fact that one or two more ministers will resign by the weekend," says leader of the Opposition in the state assembly, Mallikarjuna Kharge of the Congress.

M V Sriganesh, general secretary, campaign committee, of the Lok Shakti, the political wing of Hegde's front, expects three ministers to quit, along with a couple of legislators once Hegde returns to Bangalore on February 13.

Ananth Kumar too feels the situation" is pregnant with possibilities."

Siddaramaiah dismisses the ideas. "We have already proven our majority in the Vidhan Soudha. If the Congress and the BJP chose not to participate in that vote, it was their decision."

Much will depend upon the Lok Sabha election results, which will play a decisive role in determining the future of the Patel government. "If the JD government survives till the 22^nd," says Kharge, "they will then be forced to resign on moral grounds after their party gets trounced in Karnataka."

A view supported by Sriganesh. "The process of destabilisation has already begun. Even if Patel manages to hold the government, we only have to wait for the election results. Then, everyone will clearly see that the people's mandate is against the JD."

In which scenario, both the Congress and the BJP will call for a fresh assembly election in the state. And each claims that they are strong enough to form the government.

"Look," says Suresh Kumar, the BJP media liaison, "the BJP has made its stand clear: we will demand a fresh mandate."

The Congress, which has been demanding the government's resignation on moral grounds, is hardening its stance. "We are prepared for elections," says Kharge, "We have already won two by-elections, including Ramanagam, the seat that H D Deve Gowda vacated when he became prime minister. We have won the local council elections, and the election to the agricultural produce market committee, which deals with 6.5 million farmers. We wrested the Mangalore Corporation from the BJP. Of course, we will form the next government."

The BJP, but naturally, differs, saying it will form the government. "Our influence -- both political and popular -- has been steadily increasing in Karnataka. And our partnership with the Lok Shakti has given us added strength. And since, B S Yedirappa is the leader of the state unit, he will be the next chief minister,"

The one party not keen on an assembly election is the Lok Shakti. Hegde's party would like a sufficient number of JD legislators to cross over to the Lok Shakti so as to split the JD without attracting the anti-defection law (a minimum of 39), and then, form a new government without dissolving the present assembly. While suggesting this scenario, both Dr Jeevraj Alva, the Lok Shakti candidate from Bangalore North, and Sri Ganesh offer a word of caution: "Of course, the BJP, our alliance partner, will have to feel the same way."

Siddaramaiah feels confident that there is no question of an election in the near future. He also believes the JD will win at least 16 or 17 (out of a total of 28) seats in the state.

Sriganesh sees the current poll as a fight for survival by both the Congress and JD, a view seconded by the BJP. However, the Congress, revitalised by Sonia Gandhi's whistle-stop tour, is predicting that it will win at least 20 seats in the state.

The Lok Shakti, which has so far not had any success in any local election, hopes to win at least 5 or 6 seats. They also hope that J H Patel will eventually walk over to its side, in which case he might continue to remain chief minister!

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