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The Rediff Special/ Dr Rashmi Bhure

India should try to sustain and enhance stable deterrence with Pakistan and China

The 1990s can be said to be a period of regional Cold War in South Asia. The arms race in the region is the consequence of this. It has put Indian policy- makers in a dilemma: Should India be the crusader for disarmament, or should it declare itself as a nuclear weapon State? It's becoming difficult for them to choose the first option, though they would like to, as India perceives that the developments taking place in its neighbourhood are a threat to its national security.

The following are a list of events which indicate the arms race in the region:

*Supply of 38 F-16 fighter aircraft to Pakistan by the United States.
*Development of indigenous Haft series missiles by Pakistan.
*Stockpiling of 100 to 200 kg of weapon grade uranium by Pakistan.
*Supply of 5,000 ring magnets to enrich weapon grade uranium by China to Pakistan.
*Confirmation of evidence by US spy satellite about the preparation for the first nuclear test by Pakistan.
*Supply of nuclear capable M-11 missiles by China to Pakistan.
*A series of nuclear tests by China at the Lop Nor test site.
*Transfer of arms worth US $ 368 million by the US to Pakistan under the Brown Amendment.
*Operation of 13 nuclear reactors by China, which are not under the International Atomic Energy Agency safeguard.
*Pakistan’s highly advanced clandestine nuclear weapon programme supported by China.
*And the latest in the line, the test-firing of Ghauri, Pakistan’s intermediate-range ballistic missile.
*Ghauri was followed by Ghaznavi, another missile, test-fired last week.

The BJP-led government has clearly asserted India’s stand on nuclear issues. It seems that Pakistan’s test-firing of Ghauri and Ghaznavi soon after Atal Bihari Vajpayee came to power is more like a reaction to his nuclear policy. Pakistan is trying to put psychological pressure on India. Now India has to decide whether it will trap itself in the vicious circle of arms race or break loose. There are certain options, or in other words, some Dos and Don’ts which Indian policy-makers could consider, and which could tackle the problem of national security.

The Dos & Don’ts:

The cost-effectiveness of weaponisation would disturb India’s efforts to reform and strengthen its economic structure. In per capita income, India is one of the poorest nations in the world. Its literary rate is less than 50 per cent. Malnutrition and diseases are widespread. Yet India continues to spend more than 25 per cent of its annual budget on building war machines. Reducing military expenditure by just 10 per cent, for example, could fund the construction and operation of thousands of schools.

Secondly, a nuclear test by India would be perceived by Pakistan as a way of demonstrating its regional superiority. This would trigger off a confrontation between the two. So, India should try to sustain and enhance stable deterrence with Pakistan and also China. True, it is difficult to determine how much is sufficient for deterring -- overestimation may trigger off nuclear confrontations; underestimation, too, can be disastrous.

Besides, India should continue with the Gujral doctrine. It needs to strengthen relations with China as this would be one way to control Pakistan’s nuclear activities. Further, Indo-US relations should be improved and India should pressurise US to stop aiding Pakistan.

Finally, India should view its security policy in a much wider sense. This should include the economic, industrial and technological base; cohesiveness of socio-economic structure; stability of the political system and efficiency of diplomacy.

Dr Rashmi Bhure is a lecturer in the department of politics, SIES College of Arts, Sciences and Commerce, Bombay

The Rediff Special

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