| Rediff India Abroad Home | All the sections | |
RBI stand: Better safe than sorry March 24, 2008 For years, the wunderkinds of the financial world have railed at the Reserve Bank's dullness and stupidity, its unwillingness to allow innovations, and its excessive caution. But the RBI seems about to have the last laugh. So why is India safe amidst this turmoil? Because the Reserve Bank has done the things that people laughed at. It issued market stabilization bonds and absorbed dollars; now if overseas investors suck out dollars after selling shares, there is no shortage of dollars to sell to them; and, there will be no domestic liquidity crisis because the RBI can buy back those bonds and pump rupees into the market. Further, the RBI has made banks keep 7.5 per cent of their deposits in cash, and another 25 per cent of their deposits in government bonds. So even if there were to be a run on a bank -- as with Northern Rock and Bear Stearns-they would have the liquidity to tackle the situation, so long as they are solvent; and bank solvency has improved because of financial reforms over the past 15 years. In the two areas where freedom was given to companies and banks to innovate -- hedging of foreign currency transactions, and convertible loans to be taken overseas -- the results have been disastrous. On currency derivatives, Indian firms have lost at least Rs 20,000 crore (Rs 200 billion) on current valuations -- though they will report these only in stages because of lax accounting norms. This is, therefore, playing out as a repeat of 1997 -- India was seen then as being free from the East Asian virus because it had not fully integrated with the region, on trade or capital flows. Such an argument will invite strong ripostes from experts who will argue -- with reason -- that India pays the price in many ways for the lack of sophistication in its financial markets. After all, markets that are made broader and deeper and provide more options will be more stable than others. The emerging market economies are particularly vulnerable to shocks, and many shocks come with a bill that totals 10 per cent of GDP. When poor countries have to pay that, it can cause economic disaster and provoke political convulsions. Powered by More Guest Columns | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||